N.D. Andy Lehrer

Welcome! I am a Ph.D. candidate in economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

My main research interests are firm dynamics, international macro/finance, and international trade. I study how firms set their prices in international markets in reaction to policy uncertainty, tariff changes, and exchange rate fluctuations. My interests also include sovereign debt, monetary policy in open economies, and political economics. As a policy-oriented macroeconomist, I combine structural modeling, quantitative methods, and design-based econometrics.

Before moving to Madison, I was a research economist in the Banking and Finance team at the Israel Competition Authority, and a research analyst in the Financial Division at the Bank of Israel.

I hold an M.A. in economics and a B.A. in philosophy, politics, and economics (PPE) from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel.

Contact Information:

Email: nlehrer2[at]wisc.edu

LinkedIn: N.D. Andy Lehrer

Twitter: @ndlehr

Curriculum Vitae: Link

Working Papers

Trade policy uncertainty and import prices (draft coming soon) Job market paper

Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has been rising this century, reaching its highest level in decades in the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war. Yet, little is known about the effect of TPU on import prices that adjust infrequently. In this paper, I introduce TPU and tariffs into a dynamic model of exporting with costly price adjustments. The model accounts for well-documented facts about U.S. import prices, specifically low exchange rate pass-through. I show that the likelihood of price adjustment decreases with TPU as firms try to postpone costly adjustments. The optimal tariff-exclusive reset price increases with TPU due to price complementarities that create a precautionary markup motive. In a quantitative exercise, I calibrate the model to U.S. import prices and show that tariff pass-through into the tariff-inclusive import price increases significantly with TPU. At the same time, exchange rate pass-through into the same prices is unaffected by TPU and remains low. My findings explain a large part of the puzzling high tariff pass-through estimated for U.S. import prices during the 2018-2019 trade war vis-a-vis low exchange rate pass-through. Finally, I show that the deadweight loss created by a tariff hike increases with the level of TPU.

Work in Progress

The role of exchange rate pass-through in the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war

Uniform pricing in international trade

Monetary policy in a small open economy with multiple invoicing currencies

Monetary policy regime, domestic debt, and external debt in emerging economies (with Julio Mereb)

Published Papers

This study uses the 2015 legislature elections in Israel in order to estimate how the market evaluates political connections. Using the political connectedness of boards of directors and senior executives in all the public firms in Israel to identify political connections, the study estimates the impact of the electoral outcomes on the cumulative abnormal returns of firms listed in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) in the days following the elections. Results indicate that political connections had little impact on cumulative abnormal returns in the estimation period. However, some sectors reacted in a robust and statistically significant manner. In particular, gas and oil firms' stock prices showed a notably higher and positive abnormal return. While the effect of the electoral outcomes on specific sectors indicates that the Israeli stock market does evaluate political outcomes through asset prices, the market's lack of responsiveness to political connections after the 2015 elections could indicate that political connections do not carry financial value in the Israeli stock market. This unique result is attributed to the institutional and political system in the country.

Policy Reports & Research

"Competition in the Retail Brokerage Market", Israel Competition Authority and Israel Securities Authority: August 2019 (Hebrew)

"Bond Offerings by Foreign Companies in Israel". In Financial Stability Report (pp. 36-41), Bank of Israel: December 2014

Reclaiming Nimrod: learn more about this 5,000 years old name (Nimrod, Nimrud).